Predicting Fanatic’s Release Schedule
In just a few months, Topps will become the licensed card manufacturer for basketball. In just a few more, football will follow. I’m excited (understatement). Topps Chrome Football, Stadium Club Basketball, the first licensed Sapphire sets, the list goes on and on.
Well, let’s actually look at the list. What can we expect a full slate of Fanatics-produced Topps cards to look like?
I envision two categories of products: products that include hobby/retail releases that are designed more for the casual box-ripper, and boxes that are designed more for the breaking world that have a strong element of luck akin to a lottery attached.
While one might lament the rise of breakers (I don’t even though I don’t use them), it’s undeniable that the bulk of premium hobby-only products are being ripped by them.
It’s worth noting that my projected slates lean a bit baseball-heavy. That tracks with what Fanatics has said in the past about expecting baseball to be the largest of the three to start at least.
Hobby/Retail
Let’s check out the more traditional hobby/retail releases. These are products that will have more expensive hobby boxes, but will be in tons of retailers in cheaper SKUs.
Here’s my proposed retail slate:
Bowman (3 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 5
Chrome (2 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 4
Allen & Ginter (1 Multisport)- 1
Flagship (3 Baseball, 2 Football, 2 Basketball)- 7
Heritage (2 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 4
Stadium Club (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Smaller Retail Releases
Archives (1 Baseball, 1 Football, Basketball)-3
Big League (1 Baseball, Football, Basketball)-3
Holiday (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
New Product (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Non-Sports
1 Monthly
The products chosen have all been popular hobby/retail releases in the past. I see little reason why any of these products won’t be popular in football or basketball form. With the growing ubiquity of retail sports cards, I look forward to impulse buying blasters of any of these products soon.
I envision two larger retail sports releases, along with one non-sport and smaller sports release each month. Throw in some more new products or more non-sports, and it would be fairly easy to get to one retail product released each week.
That seems reasonable to me, and might even leave some room for growth. I think the retail market can easily handle one retail release a week.
Ideally, the first Flagship releases would come about two to three weeks before their respective sports season begins, with the latter Flagship release coinciding with the postseason.
Topps could easily opt for multiple Allen & Ginter sets, but I’m betting they just lean more into its multisport vibe and include more basketball and football stars in the main release.
Collectors generally prefer releases to come out during the season, but the football and basketball seasons have such a big overlap that the market could easily become too crowded if they don’t space releases out to include dates outside the season.
Breaker-centric Products
Here’s a look at the products the breakers will be chomping at the bit for.
Bowman’s Best (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Bowman Sapphire (2 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Brooklyn (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Cosmic (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Definitive (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Dynasty (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Finest (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Gilded (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Inception (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Logofractor (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Luminaires (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Museum (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Pristine (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Sterling (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
Topps Sapphire (2 Baseball, 2 Football, 2 Basketball)- 6
Tribute (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball) -3
Triple Threads (1 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball)- 3
This gives a total of 54 breaking products, which would allow for around one product release a week. I think that’s a pretty solid mark to shoot for. My hunch is that there will be at least three new additions as well.
Cosmic, Finest, and a few others on this list are still widely enjoyed by box breakers. Still, I’d wager the bulk of all of these products were ripped by breakers, and it is clear that Fanatics is developing these products with breakers in mind.
I’ve slotted Allen & Ginter X, Archives Signature, Bowman Platinum, Diamond Icons, Five Star, and Tier One for the slag heap, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few, or even all of them, stick around. If they do keep them, there will inevitably be times when a release can go under the radar with the presence of too many large releases on the calendar.
Web Only
There are also the web-only 206, Black & White, Topps Now, and a variety of Topps x collaborations to keep collectors busy. These smaller releases often prove very popular with box prices shooting up. The Bob Ross releases, Topps World Baseball Classics, and multiple MLB x GPK releases are amongst some of the best ripping experiences to be had over the past five years.
Wrap Up
Ultimately, I can see Fanatics doing one hobby/retail product along with a breaking product each week once they get their full slate of licenses. I think my list of products is fairly reasonable. My big question is if Fanatics can (or cares to) create a more predictable calendar that spreads releases out once they control the licenses. I’m certainly hoping so.