Sports Card Crystal Ball: Predicting the Hobby’s Future

Every once in a while, I like to look into my crystal ball and discern the future of the hobby. Whether or not I’m good at it is another story, and time makes fools of all men and so on, but it’s a fun exercise. So, without further ado, 10 predictions for the near future of the sports card hobby.

1. Forgeries

The biggest threat to the hobby is the erosion of confidence or trust in the authenticity of products. I was searching for Topps Chrome James Wood refractors on eBay and got spooked by large lots of refractors from China for far too low prices. It looked like most collectors knew to stay away from those listings, but the end result was that I didn’t fully trust the other listings either.

As the card market continues to be big business, I expect authenticity and forgeries to be major issues. That said, the hobby has weathered numerous forgers and charlatans. I’m just not sure if that’s because collectors (myself included) are correctly judging the risks, or if it's more a function of a sucker being born every minute. Unfortunately, my first prediction is bleak, and I expect forgeries to be a growing concern.

Prediction: More forgeries, unfortunately.

2. Card Cleaning

Mentioning card cleaning in the sports card world is kind of like bringing up religion or politics at a dinner party. Feelings will get hurt and friendships ruined. I think the sports card world is about to have the hard conversation with itself about card cleaning and its place in the hobby, hopefully far, far away from it.

I’m not convinced my anti-cleaning stance will win. To be fair, I’m not anti-cleaning, I just believe any cleaning or restoration outside of a simple wipe down should be disclosed to buyers and done with tried and true methods. I’m just against the current wild west cleaning frenzy where folks are dumping unknown liquids onto cards from some internet rando named Kurt.

I’m only predicting that the conversation will happen soon. This topic will surface and become a major issue in the next two years. If pressed, I think the most likely outcome will be PSA offering card cleaning services as an add-on service. I hope not, but the comic grading industry has made a mint by offering it. Lots of money, but also a main reason I stopped collecting graded comics.

Prediction: I don’t know the outcome, but the hobby will have a long discussion hashing out the place of card cleaning in the hobby.

3. Card Grading

I’m predicting sports card grading volume will continue to drop. It was down 15% this July compared to last July, and with premiums for modern graded cards dropping, there is reason to expect further drops as collectors realize that the grading service is not adding enough value to justify the costs for many cards being sent in.

That’s boring, though. I’m more interested in what the companies will do to combat that drop. Will PSA finish gutting SGC? Nah. Will CGC finally become a force in the sports card world? Nah. Will BGS rebound to give PSA a run for their money? Nope, but I wish.

So, what will happen? I think we’ll see PSA take a page out of SGC’s playbook with specials (probably $12-per-card) for big sports card releases. I also think we’ll see more bulk orders from repackers, which might prop CGC up in terms of their sports division. Lastly, I think the drop in demand for sports card grading will see some of the smaller companies fold and fewer new companies sprouting up.

Prediction: Declining numbers mean time for specials. PSA will mimic SGC’s successful discount programs on certain big new releases. Also, it’s curtains, lacy, gently wafting curtains for many of the small graders.

4. On-Card Autos

This is me being optimistic: I predict we’ll have more licensed on-card basketball and football autos packed out in 2026 than in any year previously. Topps clearly seems more willing to offer on-card autos than Panini, which has gone so far as to have stickers in their top products. They’ve also discussed wanting to maximize on-card autos.

My slight hesitation in this prediction comes from the fact that basketball and football players have gotten used to only signing stickers. It’s not that hard to find on-card auto RCs of most MLB players. That’s not the case for basketball and football stars. My hunch is that the switch might necessitate heavy use of redemptions.

Still, I think we’ll finally turn the corner, and on-card autos won’t be outnumbered by the dreaded stickers 10:1.

Prediction: On-card autos make a massive comeback in basketball and football products. The hobby rejoices. My wallet shudders.

5. Game-Dated Memorabilia

Along with on-card autos returning to basketball and football, I expect Topps to wash away the stench of Panini’s disgraced memorabilia card program. It’s not hard to do better than Panini, but Topps seems like they are on a mission to make memorabilia cards a much bigger part of the hobby.

The main way they are doing that is by stating what game(s) the memorabilia comes from. It’s been a long time coming. In 2001, my favorite card that year wasn’t the Bowman Chrome Pujols auto, but instead was his 2001 Absolute RC, which had a chunk of a base from his MLB debut. I figured this was the new norm and I’d be collecting debut memorabilia for decades. Nope.

Topps brought the concept back in a big way with the Rookie Debut patch autos, but they’ve also been adding game-dated material in other products. I’m hopeful they’ll start doing game-used base relics for MLB debuts to give more than one collector a shot at debut memorabilia.

I think this trend is here to stay, and we’ll see Topps push the quality of game-used cards to new heights. Maybe the patches won’t look as good as some of the Panini ones, but at least they’ll be from actual game-used material.

Prediction: Topps increases the amount of game-dated game-used material cards. The hobby rejoices. My wallet shudders.

6. A Must-Have Non-Sport Non-TCG Product

I’m not sure when it will happen, I’m not sure what IP it will be, but at some point, there will be a non-sport product that has people lining up at Target and that attracts thousands of new non-sports collectors. No clue what it will be, but I see it happening in the next few years.

I also think that the predicted non-sport non-TCG juggernaut will cause hobby attention to flow to other non-sports issues.

Prediction: A non-sports, non-TCG product becomes a must-have, and flippers line up to snag said product.

7. A Predictable Card Release Calendar

With delays from the pandemic no longer a viable excuse, and the big three licenses united under the Fanatics umbrella, there is little reason not to have a predictable release calendar. I’m expecting this to take a year or two to shake out, but eventually I expect there to be a predictable yearly calendar.

Prediction: Topps gets its releases better scheduled to allow each product a chance to shine.

8. Breaker’s Paradise

There are two types of products, as I see it: those with retail SKUs and everything else. That everything else? It belongs to the breakers now. Any changes that are coming will be to make all of the hobby products more breaker-friendly.

So, what does that mean? More case hits, more sketch cards, more parallels, more bells and whistles. Just like with slot machines, the presentation must get bigger, bolder, and more exciting each year. There’s one more more, more money.

It also means less. Fewer base cards, fewer packs in boxes, fewer players on checklists, and fewer boxes that make sense for casual collectors to rip for fun.

I do foresee the casual collector and collectors in more modest income brackets (me) being catered to with the products that do have retail SKUs. Breakers might have the $1000 lottery ticket products, but stalwarts like Topps Flagship, Stadium Club, Allen & Ginter, and more allow for pack ripping on a budget and tend to be geared away from the lottery ticket mentality of the breaker products.

I think this divide will become clearer as Topps continues to gear its non-retail products towards maximizing breaking opportunities.

Prediction: Topps will continue to re-engineer non-retail releases to better cater to breakers. Sets with retail SKUs become the haven of set builders and casual rippers.

9. Basketball and Football Resurgence

The biggest thing I see on the horizon is the reemergence of the basketball and football markets. It’s already happening, so it’s not a particularly bold prediction. CardLadder’s basketball and football indices are up about 13% over the last year. With Topps taking over, I expect both markets to heat up even more.

They’ve cooled massively since their peak in 2021, with the indices still down 38% from their high points.

I’m bullish on basketball and football, but within reason. We’ve seen Fanatics take over Topps and do well for sure. Still, they didn’t reinvent the wheel or anything, and it seems the baseball market has slowed in terms of growth, at least according to print runs, although there are reasons to purposefully limit that.

Prediction: Basketball and football markets continue to rebound as excitement builds with the Topps takeover.

10. Cards from the aughts have a moment.

80s and 90s cards have some die-hard fans, but one rarely sees collectors waxing poetic about the first decade of the 2000s. I think that’s going to change. Maybe not in a massive way, but I can see some early 00s gems starting to get the same respect as some of the 90s stalwarts.

Prediction: Early 00s cards have a moment.

Wrap Up

Those are my 10 predictions. What hobby predictions do you have? Which of these am I way off on? Let me know in the comments.