TCG TakeOver: PSA Increases Prices
PSA announced an increase in the prices and turnaround times for some of its service levels. They cite increased demand as the main reason for the move, but the changes don’t reflect the reality of the sports card market at all. Rather, these changes appear to be driven by a surge in TCG grading that doesn’t seem to be slowing. While the move is driven by the TCG boom, it has some major ramifications for the sports card world.
PSA’s monthly sports grading volume has actually been down approximately 20% (some months higher and some lower) compared to where they were in 2024. A decline in premiums for modern gems is the likely culprit, and it’s unlikely that premiums will return to their pandemic highs. The days of every gem mint slab getting at least 5x to 6x raw are long gone, and I’ve picked up some nice modern gem case hits for under 2x raw.
Collectors took a while to realize the drop, but it looks like they finally figured it out, with PSA sports grading seeing large declines in every month of 2025 after several years of growth. The drop in sports grading is masked by the surge in TCG grading that sees PSA setting new overall records each month despite the drop in sports. The drop coincides with an upswing in the major sports card markets, so the grading dip is a bit jarring.
A Further Drop in Grading?
The price increase isn’t as bad as some theorized, but it will have an impact on grading volume. The obvious result is that one should expect the drop in sports grading volume to continue at PSA. I thought they might want to stop the bleeding and run some specials, but I was only considering the sports side of their equation.
So fewer graded cards. That might not be a bad thing, as the “Junk Slab Era” is something that definitely gets bandied about on card social media. I’d expect collectors to continue to up the price threshold for cards they want to send off (my current PSA threshold is $50 raw), which will depress volume.
A New Challenger
The big impact IMO, is that this kicks the door wide open for the corpse of BGS or CGC to grab some major market share in the sports card world. If CGC wants to be a real player in the sports card world, $10-a-card grading will go a long way in getting them there.
So far, CGC has been the victim of their own badly timed price increases. They lost 90% of their sports volume due to their first one. My guess is they are blinded by the TCG bonanza, but a price drop coinciding with a PSA price increase could change the game. PSA has given CGC and BGS a wide-open window. Now they just have to reach it.
A Hobby Driven by TCGs
The other thing I’m interested/worried about is that this is the first time that business decisions seem to be driven by TCGs at the expense of the sports card business. PSA’s sports card business is already in decline, and these price increases will hasten that.
The current TCG environment is way too reminiscent of the pandemic sports card explosion, so I think this will pass, but what will a hobby market dominated by TCGs look like? We’ve all been worried about Fanatics being the major mover in the hobby (and they are), but perhaps The Pokémon Company might have a big impact on the sports card world as well.
Shows, stores, and shelf-space are all turning increasingly to Pokémon. Maybe I’m wrong, and PSA’s TCG-driven decision isn’t the start of TCG considerations dictating the sports card market, but rather the culmination of a fait accompli. So long, Michael Jordan. All hail Pikachu!