Top 20 MLB rookies of last Five Years, Revisited
At the start of the season, I took a look at the top 40 rookies, in terms of hobby importance, of the last five years. The only rule was that they had to have a rookie card in a Topps product between 2021 and 2025. I thought it’d be fun to revisit the list to see who has shot up the ranks (Raleigh and Kurtz), and who is going the wrong way.
I’m only doing the top 20 as the 21-40 rankings get a bit tedious, and I’m not sure there is really much difference in terms of hobby value between the 23rd-ranked and 37th-ranked players.
The Dropouts
Dropping out of the top 20: Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, Eury Perez, Spencer Strider, Jackson Merrill
Merrill is the biggest dropper. He hit like everyone expected Pete Crow-Armstrong to this year, mediocre in other words. He’s young and should be a good ball player for years, but his place in the hobby is looking suspect. It was a disappointing year for the Orioles, and two of their vaunted youngsters fell off the top 20 list. Rutschman might not even be with the team next year. The other two moving off the list are a couple of aces that are having a hard road back from injury. Either could fight their way back up the ranks next season, but they’ve both got a lot of work to get back to form.
Living on the Edge
These first five have a spot on the list, but it’s difficult to see them rising much further.
20. Jacob Wilson (40)- Wilson showed there is a place for a low-power, high-average guy in the hobby. It’s towards the back of the pack for sure, but it’s a place at least.
19. William Contreras (25)- A slow start hurt him, but he’s got over a 100-point lead on Raleigh in OPS since the All-Star break. He still looks to be the top NL catcher for the next few years. He’ll need some seasons where he’s productive from start to finish. This really should probably be Jackson Holliday’s or Jackson Merrill’s spot, but I just believe in Contreras more.
18. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (15)- He had a strong year, but this just might be his hobby ceiling.
17. Riley Greene (17)- Ditto for Mr. Greene.
16. Mason Miller (19)- Miller’s immaculate inning might have been the most impressive inning in MLB history, with 8 of the 9 strikes being swing strikes. Throw in the king’s ransom the Padres paid for him, and he’s slowly moving up this list, but I’m not sure there is much higher a closer can go.
Falling Stars
Along with Merrill, these three 2024 darlings couldn’t quite live up to the massive expectations collectors had for them. They all had good/great seasons for their age, though. My hunch is one of these guys will be an awesome buy-low opportunity, but I’ll inevitably pick the wrong one.
15. Wyatt Langford (9)- Langford will likely finish with a 20/20 season for his 23-year-old season. That’s pretty great. The expectations were just higher.
14. Jackson Chourio (8)- Like Langford, he looked great at times, but also is the victim of unreasonable expectations.
13. Elly De La Cruz (10)- He’s got the highest ceiling and lowest floor of these three. He doesn’t have to be the top statistically, but he needs to bring more excitement than he did this year.
The Risers
These guys are all trying to crack into the elite category. More seasons like they had this year will get them there.
12. Garret Crochet (16)- The gap between Crochet and Skubal isn’t as big as some would have you believe. Crochet showed he can handle a front-of-the-rotation workload, and looks poised to be in the Cy Young conversation for the next few years.
11. James Wood (14)- It looked like he might make his way into the elite category this year. He’s slowed down since the All-Star break. He’s hitting the ball harder than just about everyone else in the majors and is only scratching the surface of his potential. If anyone can crack the top 5 next year, he’d be my bet. Look for big things if you start to hear the words “increased launch angle” about him in Spring Training.
10. Cal Raleigh (28)- What a difference a year makes. He went from fan-favorite upside to setting records in a hurry. He’s come back to earth a bit, and at 28, could fall off this list in a hurry during periods of slow production.
9. Pete Crow- Armstrong (12)- I thought PCA’s early hitting success this year was a bit of a fluke. He proved me wrong, showing that he has 30/30 potential for the foreseeable future. I’m still leery of ranking him higher due to the way the hobby has treated other players with similar skillsets (Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Jim Edmonds).
8. Junior Caminero (21)- 40+ homers for a guy who just turned 22 is absurd.
The Elite
7. Julio Rodriguez (5)- In the original article, I wrote that “his ceiling is hampered by his painfully slow starts each season.” That’s still true.
6. Tarik Skubal (6)- With Cole being sidelined by injuries, Skubal is the main veteran pitcher of value still in the prime of his career. Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Kershaw, and Sale are the last sure-fire HOF pitchers, and Skubal is the best hope to join them. It’s only been two dominant seasons, but the hobby wants to like pitchers again, and Skubal is the best non-Skenes, not about to retire, option.
5. Corbin Carroll (4)- Carroll had a great season with a shot at 30/30 still on the table. His cards have been down a bit recently, as his prices are settling from spiking early in the season. He’s clearly a perennial All-Star caliber type of player. Now it remains to be seen if he can jump to the MVP level. He’s shown flashes of that potential for sure, so I’m not betting against him.
4. Gunnar Henderson (3)- Henderson’s early-season oblique injury cost him some production, but he’ll still finish as a top 20 War guy. Still, there is no denying Henderson has been a bit of a disappointment. His talent level and solid production despite adversity keep him in the top 5, but he’ll need to get back to his MVP-contender form next year, or collectors will start fleeing.
3. Nick Kurtz (NR)- Kurtz started slow, and then put on his best Judge impersonation. He’s the latest hyped young star to start slow before figuring things out. The A’s have all of a sudden snatched the team with the most potential future hobby stars from the Orioles, with Kurtz as the centerpiece.
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (1)- Witt has had a spectacular year. It’s just not been anywhere near as good as his 2024. His pricing is almost exactly where it was a year ago. The fact that he hasn’t seen a major decrease despite the dip in production is a testament to his popularity in the hobby. Like Gunnar Henderson, I think he needs a big year next year, or collectors might look for the exit.
1. Paul Skenes (2)- I thought for sure he’d level off by now. Nope. Skenes is still hot. With apologies to Christopher Sanchez, Skenes should get his first Cy Young this year. Skenes keeps destroying all the doubts I had about him. The thing I can’t get over is that he’s been allowed, and able, to pitch so many innings. I still think he’s overpriced, and I don’t have any Skenes cards of note, but that just means he’s about to rip off five Cy Youngs in a row.
Wrap Up
I should probably have another 2025 guy on this list. Who would make your top 20 that I left off? Let me know in the comments.