MLB ups and Downs

The baseball card market doesn’t see the wild swings of the NFL or NBA markets. It doesn’t mean that it’s all slow growth or slow declines though. The early part of the baseball season sees bigger jumps as hot streaks are easy to identify. The season is young, and already there have been major shifts in multiple players’ card values.

It pays to keep abreast of market changes so that one can get the most bang for the buck. Every player has dips and peaks. Buying at the low points allows one to have a much cooler collection. Let’s check out eight players that have seen big gains and three that have seen their card values plummet to see if we can find any good buying (or selling) opportunities.

Ghost of phenoms past

Spencer Torkelson +102% Our own John McTaggart noticed that big things were afoot with Tork. He’s right. Tork is the biggest gainer this first month. I’m absolutely not a believer, but that’s more due to long-term concerns than his current production. Right now, he looks like the hitter collectors have been waiting for him to be, and the underlying numbers show that it’s no fluke.

That 102% is a gaudy number. It’s important to remember how far Torkelson’s cards had fallen in value to give some context. If I had any Torkelson cards left, I’d be looking to unload them, but that’s not a new thing for me. I would think about holding a couple though, which is very much a new development. I thought Torkelson was completely dead in the hobby. I was wrong.

Fernando Tatis Jr. +22% Tatis was at one point poised to be the face of MLB. That was before the PED suspension. That will always put a cap on his hobby potential. Yet, there are plenty of collectors willing to overlook it, and his hitting certainly helps them do that.

Tatis has been on fire early and is showing triple crown potential. He looks ready to go toe to toe with Judge and Ohtani as the best hitter in the game. His cards have gone up in value substantially, but I can see them going even higher. I’m not interested in Tatis for my collection, but if I were, I’d be a victim of FOMO for sure, as my impulse is to buy as I’m expecting big things for Tatis.

The new hobby darling

Corbin Carroll +28% Carroll was my big offseason target and was featured heavily in a few different newsletter columns. As much as I love congratulating myself, I wasn’t the only one predicting big things for Carroll, as he was pretty much the guy every fantasy baseball writer was drooling over.

Carroll’s been even better than advertised. He’s crushing the ball and looks like he’s ready to win an MVP or two. He’s got room for improvement, too, as he’s chasing some pitches he likely shouldn’t and striking out too much. He’s got the ability to put up a 9-11 WAR season that only a rare handful of players have.

Carroll’s cards are up big this month, but it hides the fact that his cards are actually up over 75% over the last three months. Everyone was stocking up on Carroll this offseason, and his card prices responded. Carroll is now competing with Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson to be the best young hitter in the hobby.

New York, New York

Aaron Judge +20% Ohtani and Judge are the clear 1A and 1B of the hobby. Oddly, it seems that only one of them can be hot in the hobby at any given time, despite both of them being consistently great. Right now, it’s Judge’s time to shine. For me, that means it’s time to look at Ohtani cards, which have been flat in value recently.

Francisco Lindor +16% and Pete Alonso +11% Lindor was another big offseason target, and I’ve got a small PC of Alonso cards even though I’m a Braves fan. Both are trying to jump up a level in the hobby hierarchy. They are stars on the field, but third-tier hobby stars.

Lindor should be helped by having autos in Topps products again. I’m convinced his place in the hobby, along with Mookie Betts’, got minimized due to the lack of autos in products. Every time someone hits a cool auto and posts it online, it reinforces the notion that they are hobby stars. Lindor and Betts have missed out on that.

Alonso looks like an MVP candidate and is hitting as well as he ever has. He needs some big years to get on track for the HOF. Alonso had a tense offseason in baseball purgatory while waiting for a contract that caused many to question his worth in the hobby.

Lindor is way undervalued in my book, and so even with the gains, I don’t mind snagging a few more. Alonso is great, but he needs some 40 home run seasons to keep in track for 500. That’s his ticket to the HOF, and without that as a possibility, his cards will start steadily to drop like they did this offseason.

Good news, everyone!

Kyle Tucker +11% Tucker has been featured prominently in every preseason write-up I’ve done for the SCN Newsletter. He’s living up to his potential and now just needs to stay healthy. His cards are up, but they are still incredibly affordable.

Tucker needs a few big years to move from the Hall of Good to the HOF radar. At 28, he’s in his peak and needs to be cranking out 6-7 WAR seasons for several years to put himself in HOF contention. That’s well within his ability. He’s priced more like a HOF longshot. He might not make it in the end, but his cards will continue to rise as his odds increase.

The real problem with Tucker is that I think a lot of collectors think Tucker is a great buy, but get distracted by other shinier players. I’ve been big on Tucker, but I rarely buy his cards. It’s harder for players over 25 to change their standing in the hobby, and Tucker might be the victim of hobby momentum. I need to escape its grasp and buy another Tucker RC auto before they get too expensive.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +7% It’s not the biggest increase, but it’s the first time in ages that things have looked up in the hobby for Guerrero Jr. He had a great year last year and still saw his card values drop as collectors eager to get out of the Vladdy game rushed to sell at the first signs of life. That seems to finally be over.

Yuck

Jacob deGrom -30% Jacob deGrom has an outside shot at the HOF. It’s dependent on him putting together a few more productive seasons. Without those, he’s got little chance of induction.

Pitchers without a bust in Canton just don’t carry hobby value, and collectors are fleeing deGrom as his HOF odds dwindle with each poor start. At one point, he was the most dominant pitcher on the planet, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him turn things around. Still, this feels like the beginning of the end for deGrom as a hobby-relevant player as he drifts off to join Kevin Brown, Tim Hudson, David Cone, and a host of other very good pitchers that fall short of the HOF.

Nolan Arenado -20% Arenado has been solid, especially for an aging player. So what’s the deal with the dip? Many collectors were expecting Arenado to be traded. The fact that a deal never materialized caused those speculating on a potential deal to ditch their Arenado cards, and it also highlighted that Arenado isn’t the in-demand player he once was.

I’m taking the downturn in Arenado prices as a sign to pick up a nice rookie auto of his. I’m more optimistic about Arenado currently than I was six months ago, and will enjoy the discount.

Mike Trout -10% Mike Trout’s average stinks, and he’s striking out too much for sure. He’s also hitting home runs and mashing the ball. He looks like he’s evolved into Kyle Schwarber. That’s not so bad for a baseball team. It’s not great in the hobby.

Trout is 33, and this is the type of player he is now. He’s a surefire first-ballot guy and is easily one of the top 10 hitters since I’ve been collecting (since 1989). A lot of collectors are like me and anxiously waiting for the perfect time to buy the dip.

My question is, how low can he go? We’ve seen dips from injuries, but this is the first dip for Trout based on what he’s doing on the field. If he looks like he does now for a full season, there is more room to drop, but at some point soon, those looking to add Trout cards that have become too expensive will jump back in. I’m giving it another month and then going on a Trout buying spree,

Wrap Up

My big takeaway is I’m targeting a few players not on this list. Bobby Witt Jr. cards are down 2% since the start of the season, and Ohtani cards are flat. Those look like great players to target, while others are seeing gains.